Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
10/20/2011 - Talladega, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second half of the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship kicks off this weekend with the "wild card" race at Talladega Superspeedway.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Good Sam Club 500 - Talladega Superspeedway - Talladega, AL
Following the death of Dan Wheldon in last Sunday's IndyCar event at Las Vegas, safety has become a major concern in this weekend 500-mile Sprint Cup Series race at Talladega Superspeedway. Talladega features a lot of exciting and wild racing, but the track has also experienced its share of controversy over the years, particularly in regards to safety.
IndyCar endured its darkest moment in the early going of the scheduled 300- mile Las Vegas race when a horrific 15-car crash claimed the life of Wheldon, a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner and former IndyCar champion. Wheldon's car went airborne into the catch fence along turn two before it erupted into flames during the lap 11 incident. The 33-year-old Englishman died of blunt head trauma.
There has not been a fatality on the racetrack in any one of NASCAR's three national touring series since Dale Earnhardt was killed in an accident on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500. SAFER barriers (soft walls), the current cars and the head and neck support (HANS) device have all played a vital role in NASCAR's safety initiatives.
"I think NASCAR has implemented some incredible safety features for our cars over the years to allow us to go to Talladega," Jeff Gordon said. "While the drivers might not always be thrilled and sometimes the fans aren't always thrilled about the type of racing going on out there, I do feel very safe inside the cars. That's something that's evolved over the years and something that we all have worked together on through experience, through seeing wrecks, going through wrecks, understanding how to contain the cars inside the racetrack, trying to keep the cars on the ground with new aerodynamics, with the roof flaps.
"I think the spoiler is a plus versus the [rear] wing when the cars get turned backwards. I feel very confident in that going to the racetrack this weekend at Talladega."
Last Saturday night at Charlotte, Jimmie Johnson walked away unscathed after crashing head on into the outside wall during the closing laps of the race.
"It was a big hit," Johnson said during Monday's electronic fuel injection test session at Charlotte. "The NASCAR safety guys came by and discussed a lot of that with me. The numbers were high, but if you look at the frequency and how long the impact lasted, it was spread out over a long period of time, because of the soft wall and the steel cage that we have around our car. It makes it a very forgiving impact in a the scheme of things.
"The velocity was very high, but the "g" number [force of gravity] was average, which is great. That g number should have been doubled if it wasn't into a soft wall. I was very fortunate to have the safety that we do on these tracks and on these cars, because it was a huge hit."
Talladega has seen its share of multi-car crashes, commonly known as "the big one," and at times, cars have sailed into the air and then slammed into the catch fence at the 2.66-mile, high-banked track.
"I guess if you really look at the big picture and why we run restrictor plates is so the cars stay on the ground," said Johnson, who won at Talladega in April. "It doesn't matter the type of race car. If it's off the ground, you cannot control it in an accident."
Bobby Allison's spectacular crash along the frontstretch in the spring 1987 race at Talladega led NASCAR to mandate restrictor plates to reduce speeds for races at Talladega and its sister track, Daytona International Speedway.
But restrictor-plate racing led to big packs of cars running two, three and even four-wide, just inches apart from each other, and moving at speeds more than 200 m.p.h. Multi-car wrecks at Talladega have involved as many as 30 drivers in a single incident.
NASCAR dodged a bullet at Talladega in April 2009 when Carl Edwards walked away from a crash that was somewhat similar to Allison's wreck. However, eight spectators suffered injuries when they were struck by debris from Edwards' car. None of the injuries were life-threatening.
Since last year's fall race at Talladega, NASCAR has been tweaking the rules package for restrictor-plate racing, which has created two-car breakaways and therefore produced record lead changes at both Talladega and Daytona.
"Talladega is fast and high-banked, and we all know what we're in for when we go there," NASCAR Vice President of Competition Robin Pemberton said.
NASCAR recently changed the size of the restrictor plate for this race. The plate has increased by 1/64 inch, putting it at 57/64-inch diameter. This will provide teams with an additional 7-10 horsepower. NASCAR has also altered the pressure relief valve on the cars' cooling system.
After a record-tying 88 lead changes in this year's spring race at Talladega, the track has set up a bonus plan for Sunday's event here. If there are 100 or more lead changes in the race, the driver who takes the lead the most times (not the most laps) will collect a $100,000 award.
Talladega will be the sixth race in the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup championship. Just 35 points separate leader Carl Edwards from eighth-place Johnson. Kevin Harvick is five points behind Edwards, while Charlotte winner Matt Kenseth trails by seven markers.
Johnson's current 35-point deficit roughly equates to 145 markers from the old points system (1975-2010).
With five races to go in the 2006 season, Johnson overcame a deficit of 146 points to win his first of five consecutive championships. So don't count him out just yet.
Talladega is the "wild card" or "crap shoot" race in the Chase, so anything can happen as far as the championship battle is concerned.
Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Good Sam Club 500.
Camping World Truck Series
Coca-Cola 250 - Talladega Superspeedway - Talladega, AL
After winning the last two races, Ron Hornaday Jr. is right back in contention for the Camping World Truck Series championship.
What a remarkable comeback the 53-year-old Hornaday has made in the past couple of months. Following his 24th-place finish in August at Bristol, Hornaday trailed then-leader Johnny Sauter by 69 points.
Hornaday, a record four-time series champion, cut his 42-point deficit in half after taking the checkered flag at Las Vegas for the first time in his career this past Saturday. Leader Austin Dillon and James Buescher, who ranked second in points heading into Las Vegas, crashed at separate times during the race.
With four races to go, Dillon holds just a five-point lead over Sauter and a seven-point advantage over Buescher. Hornaday is 21 down, while Timothy Peters trails by 25.
The series moves on to Talladega Superspeedway, where Hornaday has yet to win.
"With four races to go, Talladega is a track where we will just have to hold our breath all weekend and hope we don't get caught in the big one," he said. "We are in the midst of this championship battle and would really like to make it out of Talladega with momentum."
This will be the third race in a row that Hornaday drives the No.2 Chevrolet for Kevin Harvick Inc. Team owners Kevin and DeLana Harvick moved Hornaday from the No.33 to the No.2, since that truck is presently leading in the series' owner point standings. Crew chief Bruce Cook will remain with Hornaday at least for Talladega.
Cale Gale drove KHI's No.33 at Las Vegas, but Nationwide Series regular Mike Wallace is taking over driving duties this weekend.
"I am very excited about the chance to race for KHI, especially when I'm going to be racing a truck that I know has an opportunity to win the race," Wallace said. "I've won at Talladega before in the ARCA Series, and I'm excited to have the opportunity to win again. Hornaday is back in the run for another championship, so I think we'll be able to work together and help him along as well and hopefully accomplish a sweep for KHI this weekend."
Kyle Busch is the only Sprint Cup Series regular competing in this race. Busch has won the truck event at Talladega the previous two seasons. Last year, he nipped Aric Almirola at the finish line by only 0.002 seconds, making it the closest finish in series history.
Forty-one teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Coca-Cola 250.
<< Blake ousts del Potro in Stockholm
Stockholm, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American James Blake upended former
U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets in second-round
action Wednesday at the Stockholm Open.
The two-time Stockholm titlist Blake dou
<< Leafs down Jets in shootout
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joffrey Lupul scored twice in regulation and
posted the shootout winner, as Toronto rallied from a two-goal deficit to down
Winnipeg, 4-3, at Air Canada Centre.
Phil Kessel added a goal and two assists for
<< D.C. draws Portland to crash out of contention
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United crashed out of the playoff
hunt in a 1-1 draw with the Portland Timbers at RFK Stadium on Wednesday.
D.C. United entered MLS action needing to win their final two regular season
matches,
<< Suspensions handed down from Georgia-Vandy game
Birmingham, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three players have been suspended for the
first half of their team's next game following their actions in last
Saturday's tilt between Georgia and Vanderbilt, the SEC announced Wednesday.
Georgi
Can Hornaday Jr. keep the momentum going at Talladega? >>
Talladega, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date:
Saturday, October 22. Race: Coca-Cola 250. Site: Talladega Superspeedway.
Track: 2.66-mile oval. Start time: 4:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 94. Miles: 250.04.
2010 winner: Kyle B
Tseng, Miyazato share lead in Taiwan >>
Yang Mei, Taoyuan, Taiwan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Women's world No. 1 Yani Tseng
posted a four-under 68 on Thursday to join Ai Miyazato atop the leaderboard
after the first round of the inaugural Sunrise LPGA Taiwan Championship.
Tseng, who hails
EWU's Matt Johnson career over from injury >>
Cheney, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eastern Washington All-America safety Matt
Johnson will undergo surgery to repair a biceps tendon injury, bringing an end
to the senior's season and collegiate career.
Johnson suffered the injury in a Week 2 los
La Russa continues to press all the right buttons >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everyone has that annoying neighbor who comes over
uninvited and then always seems to stay a little too long.
The St. Louis Cardinals have become that neighbor.
Tony La Russa's crew grabbed a 1-0 World Series lead over T
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting